Gold prices have been blowing a lot of air these days. Just a few days ago, MCX August futures had touched a record high of ₹1,01,078 per 10 gram – but since then, the yellow metal has seen a correction of almost ₹2,100, trading around ₹98,940/10 gram on 17 June 2025. The question on investors’ hearts is why this sudden drop? And more importantly, what’s next for gold?
Price fall: Key drivers
Profit booking after rally
Gold has peaked and investors have started booking profits. Gold futures witnessed a sharp decline of 1-1.2% in a single day. Simple logic – when the price is at a record high, booking happens.
Geopolitical tensions easing
The Iran-Israel tensions have eased a bit now. US President's comments about easing tensions slightly dampened safe-haven demand
Dollar index and Fed policy outlook
The dollar index is still around 98.18. Meaning the USD is gradually strengthening—which is usually neutral or slightly negative for gold. Also, the Fed may take a free hand in the June policy meeting—interest rate stability will provide equal clarity.
What analysts are saying
Neha Qureshi (Anand Rathi)
Spot gold sees 1-1.2% decline, futures also down
Volatile environment in the short term—geopolitics, dollar, Fed meeting remain key drivers.
Manoj Kumar Jain (PrithviFinmart)
Profit booking seen in spot and futures
Technical support levels suggest:
₹98,550–97,700 as base
Resistance at ₹99,800–1,00,400
Buy on dips strategy with clear stop-loss and target zones is advised.
Quant Mutual Fund
They indicate a potential USD downside of 12-15% in the short term
Bullish momentum to remain in medium to long term - gold is recommended as a safe haven.
Renisha Chainani (Augmont)
Forecasts stabilization around ₹97,000 per 10 gm
If there is no major global shock, gold can reach ₹1,05,000 in the medium term.
Market-wide outlook
Another ET report suggests gold could hit ₹1,10,000 per 10 gm in a year amid continued macro uncertainties
Still, key short-term technical supports like ₹92,000 (remember the May drop) remain important.
Trading and investment strategies
Intraday/short-term traders
Watch out for volatility—buy on dips (₹98,500–98,000 zone) with a tight stop-loss.
Resistance target zone: ₹99,800–1,00,400.
Medium-term investors
Stay invested—both Quant MF and Chainani are bullish.
Use dips near ₹97,000 as a buying opportunity.
Long-term portfolio allocation
Maintain moderate risk—gold acts as a hedge against inflation/geopolitical tensions.
Data from banks (Goldman, Citi) expects $2,050–2,700/oz—a bullish signal
Macro factors to watch
Fed June 2025 meeting: Any change in stance could impact gold.
Dollar Stance: If USD strengthens, gold could remain under pressure.
Geopolitical Triggers: Tensions flaring up again in the Middle East, or a US-China trade tiff.
Global flows: ETF/central bank buying- currently supportive
Real-life example
Example: If you buy at ₹99,000 per 10 gm and keep a stop-loss at ₹97,500:
Upside case: If ₹1,00,400 resistance breaks, next target would be ₹1,05,000-1,10,000.
Downside case: If global sentiment weakens, a dip to ₹97,000-96,000 is a buying opportunity, according to Chainani.
Gold has seen a quick washout of ₹2,100, mainly due to profit-booking and easing of geopolitics. But expect short-term volatility- keep an eye on the Fed, dollar and global cues. Key support is ₹98,500-97,000 and a break above ₹1,00,400 could trigger the next rally.
Strategy recap:
Buy on dips—in the ₹98.5–97k range.
Set stop-losses for disciplined trading.
For long-term investors, gold remains important for diversification and hedging.
Be disciplined in style, but have some patience—and enjoy the gold ride.
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